Markets › Economics › Fed Rate Cut
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Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?

Probability62¢
Volume$2.4M
Liquidity$340K
ExpiresSep 30, 2026
ResolutionFOMC Statement

Price History

Order Book

PriceSharesTotal
63¢12,400$7,812
62¢28,900$17,918
61¢45,200$27,572
38¢31,100$11,818
37¢18,600$6,882
36¢9,300$3,348

Market Overview

via Polymarket

This market resolves to "Yes" if the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in the federal funds target rate at any scheduled FOMC meeting before September 30, 2026. Resolution is based on the official FOMC statement published on the Federal Reserve's website. If no rate cut is announced at or before the September 2026 meeting, this market resolves to "No."

Resolution SourceFederal Reserve FOMC Statement
End DateSep 30, 2026 · 11:59 PM ET
CategoryEconomics · Monetary Policy
May 21, 2026 · 09:32 BUY YES
Labor market softening + CPI below 2.5% creates strong cut conditions. 12/14 agents bullish.
Confidence: 82%Edge: +9¢Price: 62¢
May 17, 2026 · 14:15 BUY YES
CPI print came in at 2.4% - below consensus. Reinforces cut narrative. Market moved from 58¢ → 62¢ post-analysis.
Confidence: 78%Edge: +7¢Price: 58¢
✓ Correct - market moved +4¢ in predicted direction
May 12, 2026 · 10:48 BUY YES
Unemployment claims +14% MoM. Agents shifted from mixed to bullish consensus. Recommended entry at 55¢.
Confidence: 71%Edge: +6¢Price: 55¢
✓ Correct - market moved +3¢ within 48h
May 5, 2026 · 08:20 HOLD
Mixed signals - strong payrolls offset by dovish Fed minutes. 8/14 agents neutral. Recommended waiting for CPI data.
Confidence: 52%Edge: +2¢Price: 53¢
✗ Missed - market moved +2¢ (could have entered)
Apr 28, 2026 · 16:05 BUY YES
Fed minutes revealed 3 members favoring immediate cut. Market underpricing at 48¢ vs AI estimate of 56¢.
Confidence: 74%Edge: +8¢Price: 48¢
✓ Correct - market moved +5¢ over 5 days
Apr 21, 2026 · 11:30 BUY NO
Hot CPI surprise (2.9%) pushed cut expectations back. 10/14 agents bearish short-term. Recommended NO at 52¢.
Confidence: 69%Edge: +5¢Price: 52¢
✓ Correct - YES dropped to 48¢ (NO paid +4¢)
83%
Accuracy (5/6)
+14¢
Cumulative edge
4.2d
Avg time to move
Market price AI prediction Actual outcome
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AI Intelligence

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BUY YES +9¢ edge

AI recommends YES · You can trade either outcome

ConfidenceHigh (82%)

Core Thesis

Labor market softening (unemployment claims +14% MoM) combined with CPI trending below 2.5% creates strong conditions for a pre-September cut. 12 of 14 agents agree on YES direction.

Edge+9¢
Market 62¢
AI 71¢
Agent Signals 12/14 bullish
↑Polling Intel91%
↑Momentum87%
↑News Impact84%
↑Historical79%
↑Sentiment76%
↑Microstructure73%
↑Narrative71%
↑Social68%
↑Mean Revert65%
↑Catalyst62%
↑Prob Base60%
↑Conservative58%
↓Tail Risk45%
↓Aggressive38%
Bull vs Bear Debate Bull wins 7–3
↑ Bull Case

Labor market deterioration accelerating - initial claims up 14% MoM with continuing claims at 18-month high. CPI trajectory firmly below 2.5% target. Fed dot plot in March already signaled 2 cuts; June meeting likely confirms September timing. Market underpricing due to recency bias from 2024 hold pattern.

Cross-exam score: 7/10
↓ Bear Case

Core services inflation remains sticky at 3.1%. Wage growth hasn't decelerated enough. Fed historically waits for clear labor market break, not just softening. Election-year politics may delay action. Oil price spike risk from Middle East tensions could reverse CPI trend.

Cross-exam score: 3/10
Consensus 71% · Low disagreement
AI Probability71%
Confidence Band66% – 76%
Disagreement LevelLow
Agents Aligned12 / 14
Position Sizing 3 perspectives
Aggressive
$500
5% of portfolio · High conviction play
Moderate
$250
2.5% of portfolio · Recommended
Conservative
$100
1% of portfolio · Minimal exposure
Risk Factors 3 identified
⚠Surprise CPI spike from energy prices could delay cut timeline by 1–2 meetings
⚠Geopolitical escalation (Middle East, Taiwan) forcing Fed to hold for stability
⚠Strong June payrolls report reversing labor market softening narrative
Key Catalysts 3 upcoming
Jun 12FOMC meeting + dot plot release
Jun 28PCE inflation data
Jul 5Non-farm payrolls report

Suggested Position

Entry62¢
Target71¢
Stop-loss54¢
Size (moderate)$250
Expected value+$36.29
AI suggests $250 (moderate risk)
Price62¢
Shares~403
Max payout$403
Potential profit+$153
✓

Order placed

403 YES shares at 62¢ · Position added to portfolio

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